The UK fitness industry is in good shape by its own numbers: revenue reached £6.5 billion, up from £5.7 billion in 2024, membership grew to 12.2 million at 18% penetration, and annual visits hit 679 million — a 10% increase.
It is heading into a winter where its largest controllable cost is rising sharply.
The energy picture
Dutch TTF futures, Europe’s main gas benchmark, have climbed roughly 120% since the start of 2026, reaching about €63.7/MWh in mid-August.
The winter outlook is worse: forecasts are moving toward an average near €60/MWh for Q4 2026 and Q1 2027, from €45/MWh, with some analysis suggesting over €100/MWh may be needed to pull flexible US LNG from Asia. Storage is depleted, and drought and heat are curbing hydro and nuclear generation.
Why gyms are exposed
Swimming pools are the clearest case: heating a large volume of water continuously is among the most energy-intensive things a leisure facility does. Heating, ventilation, lighting and hot water for showers follow.
This is why the composition of the sector’s growth matters. The fastest-growing categories — Pilates, mindfulness classes and functional training — need a heated room and little else. Low-cost operators without pools carry a fraction of the energy exposure of a traditional leisure centre.
The Gym Group has opened 60 sites since 2020 and plans around 20 more in 2026. That expansion model is not accidental in this cost environment.
What members may notice
Price adjustments at renewal rather than mid-contract, in most cases.
Reduced pool hours or temperatures at facilities where pools are marginal.
Widening gap between budget and full-service pricing, since the cost pressure falls unevenly.
What this suggests about choosing
The attendance data already points toward frequency over facilities: visits grew faster than membership, meaning existing members attend more often, and the growth categories are the sustainable ones people keep doing.
If you are paying a premium for a pool you use monthly, that premium is likely to grow. If you use it weekly, it is a legitimate cost.
The useful question is the same one the data keeps pointing at: what will you actually attend? In a winter where facility costs rise, paying only for what you use is worth more than it was last year.
